Gonzales d'Alcantara { Strategic modeling }
papillon mappemonde Globe terrestre

Public sector

Private sector

Scientific Methodologies

Contact

Home > Secteur public > International Organizations < You are here Secteur public

International Organizations
Industrial cooperation between the Arab world and the European Community

Context

In 1984, when the oil price had been driven up dramatically by the OPEC, under the auspices of the Euro-Arab Dialogue, cooperation possibilities were studied between both sides of the dialogue: oil price stabilization by the OAPEC would be guaranteed against access to the investments in refinery and petrochemicals production chains given by the European Community to the Arab countries. For this study the Dialogue asked me to build a world model, a joint venture of the Katholiek University of Leuven (CES), the European Cooperation Fund and SEMA METRA (Paris), who would provide the expertise in the refinery and petrochemical sector.

Customer Demand & Needs

•  Develop consistent worldwide projections of macroeconomic, energy, refinery and petrochemical products demand and supply with exogenous oil prices and investments in refinery and petrochemicals.
•  Calculate scenarios where oil price stabilization by the OAPEC is be negotiated against access given by the European Community to markets of refinery and petrochemicals produced by the Arab countries

Benefits for the Arab world and the European Community

•  The measurement of the magnitude of the impacts of the stakes for both partners of the dialogue: to stabilize the oil price in the European Community and to generate diversified development in the Arab countries
•  Benefits were in the form of a maintained political Dialogue, less in the form of decisions

Work done

•  Identify eight zones: Arabian countries, Europe, USA and Canada, Japan, Latin America, Socialist countries, Far East, rest of world and 4 energy raw materials oil, gas, coal, other
•  Identify 7 refined products: LPG, gasoline, naphtha, jet fuel, kerosene, gas oil, heavy distillates
•  Identify 34 petrochemical products: ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, xylene, ammonia, hydrogen . polypropylene, polyester, acrylic fibres, synthetic rubber.
•  Construct the Dialogue model, illustrated with the diagrams Dialogue0.pdf ; econometric demand curves for each final and residual energy, refinery and petrochemical product and the LP production capacity models for refined and petrochemicals (including resulting intermediary demands)
•  Construct consistent scenarios, solving the industry models, linked by international trade, simultaneously with cost and price modules and with the Macroeconomic variables generated by the COMET model.
•  The scientific methodologies used are crucial. See section Our Expertise.
•  Report for the Euro-Arab Dialogue, the Arab League (OAPEC) and the European Community (DG III): "A world model for the refinery and petrochemical industries", October 1986.

See Report Dialogue 1986.pdf

up